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No new lead today. Starship reaches orbit, Kodiak's eye drug wins its Phase 3, Evonik turns down BASF, and Berkshire pays Hartford $1.12 billion to exit an asbestos cover.
No leads today. All leads.
Also worth knowing
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SpaceX’s Starship reached orbit for the first time on September 28 — The V3 Starship lost one of its six Raptor engines after stage separation, briefly called off the orbital attempt, then resumed and reached orbit carrying 26 third-generation Starlink satellites before splashing down north of Hawaii; the Super Heavy booster made its cleanest simulated landing yet over the Gulf.
Orbit is the step that lets Starship start flying regular commercial missions, which sets the pace for Starlink V3 capacity, NASA’s lunar lander schedule and the pricing pressure on every other heavy-launch provider.
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Kodiak Sciences’ wet-AMD drugs met their Phase 3 endpoints on September 28 — Topline results from the DAYBREAK pivotal study of Zenkuda and KSI-501 cleared the key endpoints; KOD closed at $89.92 against $32.35 on September 25 (+178%), while Ocular Therapeutix fell 21% to $7.66 the same day.
A long-dosing-interval entrant changes the competitive picture for Regeneron’s Eylea HD and Roche’s Vabysmo, and the market has already marked down the sustained-release rivals whose own Phase 3 data are still to come.
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Bayer’s Monsanto mRNA patent suits against Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna survived dismissal — Judge William Bryson in the District of Delaware rejected the motions to dismiss on September 28, 2026 (Nos. 1:26-cv-00012 and -00013), over US Patent 7,741,118, a 1980s Monsanto method for stabilising mRNA in crop genes; a separate Bayer suit against Johnson & Johnson is pending in New Jersey.
The claim reaches back over COVID-vaccine sales, so even a low reasonable royalty is a sizeable sum for Bayer, a company valued mostly on its glyphosate liabilities; the next milestones are discovery and claim construction.
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Evonik rejected BASF’s €10.3 billion takeover approach — BASF offered €22.15 a share, about 29% above the pre-speculation price, and Evonik said on September 28, 2026 the valuation did not merit negotiations or due diligence. Evonik closed at €20.18 on September 29; the state-backed RAG-Stiftung foundation owns 44%.
A bid from Europe’s largest chemical maker with Dutch gas at about €72/MWh signals that consolidation is now the industry’s answer to energy costs and overcapacity, and the decision rests with a foundation rather than the market.
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Northern Star rejected Gold Fields’ A$38.7 billion approach — The A$27-a-share proposal, 73% in Gold Fields shares, was called “highly opportunistic” on September 28, 2026; Elliott Investment Management said the board must engage with any serious buyer. Northern Star closed at A$23.47, while Gold Fields’ US shares fell 12.9% to $35.18 as gold dropped 3.5% to $4,168.40.
With Elliott on the register and the offer mostly in paper, the outcome depends on the gold price as much as on the boards, and a second bidder for Australia’s largest gold miner cannot be ruled out.
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Berkshire’s National Indemnity paid Hartford $1.12 billion to end their asbestos and environmental cover — Hartford disclosed on September 28, 2026 that it had commuted the adverse-development reinsurance agreement and expects a gain of about $497 million.
Hartford takes back the long tail of its asbestos and environmental claims, so its own reserving on those liabilities now matters to its earnings again, and the price Berkshire paid to leave is a data point on how both sides see that tail.
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Workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela copper mine voted 98.73% to strike — The Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions rejected the company’s offer on September 28, 2026 over equal benefits for all members; five days of government mediation, extendable by five more, must run before a strike can start. Centinela produced 240,400 tonnes of copper in 2025.
A stoppage at one of Chile’s larger mines would land in a copper market already exposed to smelter outages and labour talks elsewhere in Chile.
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AAR agreed to buy 65% of MRO Holdings, creating the largest heavy airframe maintenance business — On September 28, 2026 AAR agreed to pay about $1.8 billion for control of MRO Holdings (Bain Capital and the Kriete family keep 35%) at a $4.0 billion enterprise value, 10.7x 2026 adjusted EBITDA: about $1.0 billion of revenue, 115 hangar lines across El Salvador, Mexico, Colombia and the US, about 90% from US airlines. Sellers take roughly $780 million in AAR stock at $135 a share, against a $115.09 close that day; closing is expected by February 2027.
Aircraft delivery delays keep old jets flying and heavy checks scarce, and this deal concentrates that capacity in one listed company at a time when US airlines have few alternatives.
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The Pentagon signed a $20.7 billion multiyear AMRAAM contract with guaranteed minimums — Raytheon’s award, announced September 28, 2026, runs five years with two option years and targets at least 1,900 missiles a year, after production nearly doubled in 2025; the missile is used on 14 platforms in 44 countries, including NASAMS operators.
It is the latest munitions line moved onto a fixed-minimum production framework, which shifts volume risk away from the hundreds of small and mid-sized suppliers Raytheon says it is working with.
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The EU asked member states to keep cutting gas and power demand ahead of winter — Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen’s letter, reported September 27, 2026, puts EU storage at about 70% (12 points below last year) and Dutch TTF at €72/MWh, and eases the storage target to 80% to avoid panic buying; analysts warn of spikes above €100/MWh if LNG supply does not grow.
Voluntary curbs now can become industrial curtailment in January, the pattern that hit European fertiliser, chemical and metals output in 2022.