commodities — 5 leads

China's Commerce Ministry published a list of 1,619 US products on September 28, 2026 that will return to ordinary most-favoured-nation tariff rates, and coal is on it — the commitment to buy at least 10 million tonnes of US coal a year in 2027 and 2028, previously stated only by the White House, now has the Chinese duty cut it needs, while US met-coal producers last closed 13–37% below their late-summer highs.

The White House said after the September 24, 2026 Trump–Xi summit that China will import at least 10 million tonnes of US coal in each of 2027 and 2028, a market that fell 92% in 2025 under Chinese tariffs — the opportunity is that Appalachian met-coal producers closed September 25 barely changed and trade 19–36% below their highs, while China's own readout left the pledge out.

On September 22, 2026 Indonesia's Morowali industrial park, the largest single source of the world's nickel, said an El Niño drought had forced smelters to cut nickel pig iron output, with operating rates down 30–40% — the opportunity is that nickel is still priced on Indonesian oversupply while a record El Niño forecast to last into 2027 is hitting the one place that supply comes from.

US government forecasters now put three-in-four odds on this El Niño exceeding every event since records began in 1950, and El Niño reliably dries southern Africa in exactly the months Lake Kariba has to refill.

Kariba's water is what runs Zambia's copper mines, and the last drought there took the lake under 3% and forced mines to cut power use by 40%.

On July 1, 2026 Indonesia raised the palm-oil share of its diesel to 50% to cut fuel imports during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and a strengthening El Niño is now drying the plantations that supply it.

Palm oil futures hit a 20-month high on August 20, 2026 — but drought damages palm yields 6-24 months later, so the supply hit is a 2027 event that has only begun to be counted, and it transmits to every other vegetable oil.