SpaceX has ordered its first solar-cell factory line, and the cell design it picked runs on indium

On November 10, 2026, Singulus Technologies (Xetra: SNG) announced a supply contract with SpaceX for a turnkey production line for heterojunction (HJT) solar cells, with an order volume of over €60 million for the first line. Singulus says it is the first of several lines under a strategic partnership formed in March 2026, that delivery is due in the first half of 2027, and that production is to scale to more than 100 GW of equipment capacity as SpaceX expands satellite manufacturing in Bastrop, Texas. SpaceX also lent Singulus money in March and October 2026. Bloomberg reported on May 21, 2026, from Bastrop County permit filings, that SpaceX planned a 10 GW solar-cell factory there.

Singulus closed at €24.50 on November 11, 2026, up 92.9% on the day and about 130% over a month. Its preliminary 2025 revenue was roughly €47–50 million.

Heterojunction cells coat both faces of the wafer with a transparent conductive layer, normally indium tin oxide. Published figures for indium use vary widely: equipment maker Maxwell cited about 13.5 mg/W in July 2023, falling to about 6 mg/W with low-indium film stacks; a Forschungszentrum Jülich researcher put a best case at 3.6–4.8 mg/W in October 2022. Aluminium-doped zinc oxide can replace much of the rear-side indium, but Huasun’s CTO said in 2022 that it was not ready for mass production.

Opportunity

The market priced this as an equipment story: the toolmaker doubled. Equipment is bought once. The indium in every cell has to be bought for as long as the line runs, and the indium market is small. Fastmarkets put it at about 1,000 tonnes a year on October 23, 2026, mostly produced and consumed in China, with Rotterdam prices at $895–930/kg, up about 134% since January 2, 2026, driven mainly by indium-phosphide demand from AI optical links. SMM quoted Chinese refined indium at 4,950 yuan/kg on November 2, 2026. The US Defense Logistics Agency asked for 400 tonnes in July 2026 and cancelled in October; market sources said that volume would have been hard to supply.

Simple arithmetic on the published intensities (a calculation, not a reported figure): at 3.6–6 mg/W, 10 GW a year of HJT cells needs roughly 36–60 tonnes of indium, or 4–6% of the world market. At the 100 GW Singulus names, it is 360–600 tonnes, a third to over half of world supply. Space cells may need different coatings, so these figures could be too high or too low.

Hypothesis: a US-based buyer that wants to avoid Chinese supply chains would have to source most of its indium from the few refiners outside China, mainly Korea Zinc and Teck’s Trail refinery, and from ITO target makers such as JX Advanced Metals. Those names are 12–54% below their highs, while the toolmaker trades at its high. If SpaceX’s scale-up is real, this demand comes on top of indium-phosphide demand that has already pushed indium prices up.

How it could play out

SpaceX installs the first Singulus line in the first half of 2027 and orders more → HJT capacity in Texas grows toward the 10 GW Bastrop plan → SpaceX signs long-term contracts for ITO targets or refined indium outside China → indium prices outside China rise further as solar demand adds to indium-phosphide demand → refiners and ITO target makers with indium outside China gain pricing power, recycling of spent targets becomes more valuable, and producers start getting paid separately for the indium in zinc concentrates.

Questions worth asking

• What transparent conductor does SpaceX’s space-grade HJT cell use, and how many mg/W of indium? If it uses mostly indium-free oxides, the idea fails.
• Who supplies the ITO sputtering targets for the Singulus line — JX Advanced Metals, Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Umicore, or a Chinese maker — and could SpaceX’s localisation rules exclude Chinese targets?
• How much indium can Korea Zinc and Teck’s Trail refinery produce, and how much is already committed to indium-phosphide and display customers?
• Does SpaceX’s 100 GW plan also affect silver (HJT uses low-temperature silver paste) or n-type wafers, and which of these is the tighter limit in the US?
• Would a large US buyer bring back the US government’s stockpile purchase, which was cancelled on October 12, 2026?

Where to look

• Singulus Technologies (SNG.DE) — the direct equipment supplier and SpaceX’s lender, but now at its high after doubling on November 11, 2026
• Korea Zinc (010130.KS) — the largest refined-indium producer outside China; ₩967,000 on November 11, 2026, 54% below its 52-week high
• Teck Resources (TECK) — produces indium at its Trail refinery in British Columbia; indium is a small part of its business
• JX Advanced Metals (5016.T) — major ITO sputtering-target and indium-phosphide supplier; ¥2,641 on November 11, 2026, 54% below its high and 27% down over a month
• Indium recycling (spent ITO targets) — a large share of supply, and it grows when prices are high
• SpaceX (SPCX) — the buyer; its plan is what drives the demand

Thesis check

The order is confirmed by Singulus’s own release, and the indium market is tiny compared with the stated 100 GW goal. The arithmetic is simple even at low-indium intensities. The weak link is that the 100 GW is a stated aim backed by one €60m line, and nobody has published what coating SpaceX’s space cells use; for the listed proxies Korea Zinc, Teck and JX Advanced Metals, indium is a small part of revenue, so a big indium move may not change their earnings much.

Sources

Singulus Technologies release via MarketScreener, Nov 10 2026 · Bloomberg, May 21 2026 · Fastmarkets, Oct 23 2026 · SMM, Nov 2 2026 · PV Tech, Jul 24 2023 · TaiyangNews, Oct 19 2022